Highlights


Registration open for
2011 FTA Conference

Associated Links


Future-Oriented Technology Analysis International Conference

FOR-LEARN Online Foresight Guide

IPTS
Institute for Prospective Technological Studies


ERAWATCH
evidence-based policy intelligence


NETWATCH platform on ERA-NETs and transnational R&D programme collaboration


The Industrial Research & Innovation website

Knowledge Sharing Platform
Science and Technology Foresight Knowledge Sharing Platform

European Research Area
European Research Area

Other Links

Co-ordination of Research Policies with the Western Balkan Countries

Global research on the future of manufacturing


European Foresight Platform


Foresight Wiki


Quality and Leadership for Romanian Higher Education


UNIDO Technology Foresight

NEW HORIZONS AND CHALLENGES FOR FUTURE–ORIENTED TECHNOLOGY ANALYSIS

Proceedings of the EU-US Scientific Seminar:
New Technology Foresight, Forecasting & Assessment Methods

Introductory Note

This CD-ROM contains the Proceedings of the ‘EU-US Scientific Seminar: New Technology Foresight, Forecasting & Assessment Methods’, that was organised and held in Seville by the Institute for Prospective Technological Studies (IPTS) of the European Commission Directorate General Joint Research Centre (DG JRC).

The main objective of the Seminar was to take stock of the recent expansion of Future-oriented Technology Analyses (FTA) by looking at conceptual development, research on improved methods, methodological choice, or how best to merge empirical/analytical methods with stakeholder engagement processes.

The Seminar was organised with plenary and parallel sessions aiming at encouraging cross-fertilisation along key issues of FTA. In the plenary sessions leading world experts in the field of FTA gave presentations of recent trajectories and new drivers and directions for the FTA. Parallel sessions focused on experiences in FTA on issues like methodological selection, lessons learned from application of FTA techniques, evaluation lessons learned from attempts to increase the impact of FTA, and analysis of new methods that could be applied in FTA.

You can navigate through the table of contents (below). Within the CD the information is structured as follows:

All the contributions to the Seminar were very rich and we would like to acknowledge all the people that contributed in one way or the other to make it a success. Special thanks to the National Science Foundation that supported this EU-US Scientific Seminar1. We are willing to accept any comment or suggestion you might have, especially in view of the organisation of another Seminar on FTA in 2006.

Editors: Fabiana Scapolo (DG JRC-IPTS , Spain ) and Eamonn Cahill (EAC, Ireland )

1 “This material is based upon work supported by the National Science Foundation under Grant No. 0354590”.
“Any opinions, findings, and conclusions or recommendations expressed in this material are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Science Foundation”.


TABLE OF CONTENTS

Proceedings short version (including synthesis paper)

Keynotes papers

The Need for New and Improved Forecasting Tools by J. F. Coates

Science and Society: Towards an Integrative Approach in Foresight by H. de Jouvenel

Three Worlds of Foresight by I. Miles

Society and Technology Foresight in the Context of a Multinational Company by F. Ruff

Co-evolving Technology Roadmaps – Roadmaps as living tools by J. Green

Linking futures research to innovation processes. A selection of preliminary findings and some possible future directions by P. A. van der Duin

New Drivers and Directions: Challenges for FTA by H. A. Linstone

Session 1: Methodological Selection

Eliciting Experts’ Knowledge: A Comparison of Two Methods by F. Scapolo and I. Miles

Some Advances in the Practice of Foresight by G. Tegart; R. Johnston

Scenario Approaches – History, Differences, Advantages, and Disadvantages by Mietzner, D. and Reger, G.

Technology Roadmapping - a new perspective by Price, S.; Conway, P.; Palmer, P.; Summers, R.

Conditions for effectiveness in Roadmapping: a cross-sectional analysis of 80 different exercises by B. De Laat

Optimising the Impact of Future-Oriented Technology Analysis; methodological foundations by M. Decker and M. Ladikas

Integration, Comparisons and Frontiers of Futures Research Methods by T. J. Gordon and J. C. Glenn

Session 2: Process Management

Foresight, futures & vision by Geoff Woodling

IT Tools for Future-orientated Technology Analysis by F.G Filip, H. Dragomirescu, R. Predescu and R. Ilie

Systems Thinking in Foresight; A systems analysis of British, Irish and Turkish Foresight Programmes by O. Saritas

Context, Focus and Coherence of Foresight Programmes; Lessons from the Czech Republic and Hungary by A. Havas

Technology Futures Analysis as a Decision Problem; the case of Brazilian Energy Technology Foresight by M. Zackiewicz, G. Jannuzzi and I. Macedo

The Use of the Foresight Method for Visioning Transport and Mobility Futures and Specifying Impact Pathways; Lessons for Process Management, Assessment and Evaluation by L. Giorgi

Session 3: Models and Voices

Xtreme EUFORIA: Combining Foresight Methods by R. Popper and W.B. Korte

Participatory Development of Future-Oriented Policy Configurations for Climate Change and Mobile Gaming by A. Salo, R. Gustafsson, I. Kaakkolammi, T. Gustafsson

Linking Cross-Impact Probabilistic Scenarios to Input-Output Models by E. Fontela and J.M. Rueda-Cantuche

Nordic H2 Energy Foresight - Complementary contribution of expert views and formal analyses by A. Eerola & T. Loikkanen, B. Holst Joergensen & P. Dannemand Andersen and E. Anders Eriksson

The future impact of ICT on environmental sustainability by P. Arnfalk, L. Erdmann, J. Goodman, L. Hilty

The RISE project: some new methodologies for regional foresight by C. Roveda, R. Verganti, P. Bandoni, R. Vecchiato

Participative & Coherent Scenario building: An Input/ Output Balance model; The Case of the French National FutuRIS Operation by R. Barré and B. David

Session 4: What’s the use?

Assessing the Impact of Future-Oriented Technology Assessment by M. Ladikas and M. Decker

Towards a Typology for Evaluating Foresight Exercises by L. Georghiou, M. Keenan

Tracing Implementation Trajectories of Foresight Priorities by M. Keenan

FUTUR – The German Research Dialogue - The Second Phase by S. Hafner and K. Cuhls

Vision Assessment as a new element of the FTA toolbox by A. Grunwald

Foresighting and Technology Choice in small Developing Countries by W. Wehrmeyer, J. Chenoweth, A. Clayton, M. Fernandez-Lopez and K. Lum

Foresight As A Tool For System Innovation in Dutch Agriculture by J.G. de Wilt

Session 5: Tales from the frontier

QTIP: Quick Technology Intelligence Processes by A. L. Porter

The Scan™ Process and Technology Foresight by K. M. Patton

Tracing Emerging Irreversibilities in Emerging Technology: The case of nanotubes by R. van Merkerk and H. van Lente

Scenario-based Roadmapping –  A Conceptual View by F. Lizaso and G. Reger

Evaluation of Laboratory Directed Research and Development (LDRD) Investment Areas at Sandia by K.W. Boyack and N. Rahal

Dynamic monitoring of future developments by M. Butter and J.P. Mook

Session 6: Importing Ideas

The Interplay of Technology, Consciousness and Culture: Implications for Future-Oriented Technology Analyses by R. Nelson

Evolutionary theory of technological change: State-of-the-art and new approaches by T.C. Devezas

Evolution of behaviour predicting the adoption of innovations by N. Pals, D.J. Langley and J.R. Ortt

Experience Curves in Prospective Studies by Stine Grenaa Jensen and Per Dannemand Andersen

A shocking experiment: alternative approaches for discontinuity-oriented scenario development by P. van Notten

Assessing Emerging Technologies - Methodical Challenges and the  Case of Nanotechnologies by T. Fleischer, M. Decker and U. Fiedeler

Prospective Voluntary Agreement: Escaping Techno-Institutional Lock-in by T. Könnölä, G. C. Unruh and J. Carrillo-Hermosilla

Papers from posters session:

Adding Value to Iinformation in the Process of Promoting Technological  Innovation: an approach implemented by the Center for Management and Strategic Studies on Science, Technology and Innovation in Brazil by M. de Miranda Santos, D. Maria dos Santos, L. Fellows Filho, G. Massari Coelho, M. Zackiewicz

Pathways towards Lisbon objectives in the area of Information Society technologies- The Fistera Methodology by R. Compañó, C. Pascu, J.-C. Burgelman

Roadmapping as TA-Tool: Pre-requisites and potential benefits for assessing Nanotechnology by U. Fiedeler, T. Fleischer and M. Decker

Scenarios that tell a story; Normative Narrative Scenarios – An efficient tool for participative innovation-oriented foresight by R. Gaßner and K. Steinmüller

Technology Watch: So What? Revisited for FTA by D. Harries

ToekomstWijzer : A challenging method to make SME’s aware of future trends by R. Hartman and V. Philippens

New forms of knowledge management in participatory foresight: The case of “Futur” by M. Jaspers, H. Banthien and J. Mayer-Ries

Trends in Oil & Gas in Brazil: a methodological approach by M. Aparecida Stallivieri Neves, G. Massari Coelho, C. Lemos and J. Maldonado

Technologies for the Future - Value System Analysis as a Tool for (Media) Convergence Assessment by J. Saukkonen

Learning From Technology Foresight Connections by J. Smith and M. Mason

Technology Foresight and Assessment in Future Use of Biotechnology by K. Erik Solem and G. Gaivoronskaia

Technology development versus economic growth – an analysis of sustainable development by J. Vehmas, J. Luukkanen and J. Kaivo-oja

Technometric Advances -The Seismic Approach. Analysis of Technological Change: Measuring and Classifying the Economic Impact by M. Coccia

W3C css