NEW HORIZONS AND CHALLENGES FOR FUTURE–ORIENTED TECHNOLOGY ANALYSIS
Proceedings of the EU-US Scientific Seminar:
New Technology Foresight, Forecasting & Assessment Methods
This CD-ROM contains the Proceedings of the ‘EU-US Scientific Seminar: New Technology Foresight, Forecasting & Assessment Methods’, that was organised and held in Seville by the Institute for Prospective Technological Studies (IPTS) of the European Commission Directorate General Joint Research Centre (DG JRC).
The main objective of the Seminar was to take stock of the recent expansion of Future-oriented Technology Analyses (FTA) by looking at conceptual development, research on improved methods, methodological choice, or how best to merge empirical/analytical methods with stakeholder engagement processes.
The Seminar was organised with plenary and parallel sessions aiming at encouraging cross-fertilisation along key issues of FTA. In the plenary sessions leading world experts in the field of FTA gave presentations of recent trajectories and new drivers and directions for the FTA. Parallel sessions focused on experiences in FTA on issues like methodological selection, lessons learned from application of FTA techniques, evaluation lessons learned from attempts to increase the impact of FTA, and analysis of new methods that could be applied in FTA.
You can navigate through the table of contents (below). Within the CD the information is structured as follows:
- The file ‘Proceedings short version’ includes a Synthesis paper summarising the discussions that took place during the two days of the Seminar, both in plenary and parallel sessions. It also includes a synopsis of the keynote speakers’ and rapporteurs’ presentations.
- The folder ‘Papers’ includes all the papers that were submitted and presented at the Seminar from all speakers (i.e. plenary and parallel sessions) and the papers that were presented by contributors to the posters during the Seminar.
- The folder ‘Presentations’ includes the collection of all the slides displayed during the various sessions of the Seminar.
- Finally, there is also a file reproducing the Programme of the Seminar
All the contributions to the Seminar were very rich and we would like to acknowledge all the people that contributed in one way or the other to make it a success. Special thanks to the National Science Foundation that supported this EU-US Scientific Seminar1. We are willing to accept any comment or suggestion you might have, especially in view of the organisation of another Seminar on FTA in 2006.
Editors: Fabiana Scapolo (DG JRC-IPTS , Spain ) and Eamonn Cahill (EAC, Ireland )
1 “This material is based upon work supported by the National Science Foundation under Grant No. 0354590”.
“Any opinions, findings, and conclusions or recommendations expressed in this material are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Science Foundation”.
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Proceedings short version (including synthesis paper)
The Need for New and Improved Forecasting Tools by J. F. Coates
Science and Society: Towards an Integrative Approach in Foresight by H. de Jouvenel
Three Worlds of Foresight by I. Miles
Society and Technology Foresight in the Context of a Multinational Company by F. Ruff
Co-evolving Technology Roadmaps – Roadmaps as living tools by J. Green
Linking futures research to innovation processes. A selection of preliminary findings and some possible future directions by P. A. van der Duin
New Drivers and Directions: Challenges for FTA by H. A. Linstone
Session 1: Methodological Selection
Eliciting Experts’ Knowledge: A Comparison of Two Methods by F. Scapolo and I. Miles
Some Advances in the Practice of Foresight by G. Tegart; R. Johnston
Scenario Approaches – History, Differences, Advantages, and Disadvantages by Mietzner, D. and Reger, G.
Technology Roadmapping - a new perspective by Price, S.; Conway, P.; Palmer, P.; Summers, R.
Conditions for effectiveness in Roadmapping: a cross-sectional analysis of 80 different exercises by B. De Laat
Optimising the Impact of Future-Oriented Technology Analysis; methodological foundations by M. Decker and M. Ladikas
Integration, Comparisons and Frontiers of Futures Research Methods by T. J. Gordon and J. C. Glenn
Session 2: Process Management
Foresight, futures & vision by Geoff Woodling
IT Tools for Future-orientated Technology Analysis by F.G Filip, H. Dragomirescu, R. Predescu and R. Ilie
Systems Thinking in Foresight; A systems analysis of British, Irish and Turkish Foresight Programmes by O. Saritas
Context, Focus and Coherence of Foresight Programmes; Lessons from the Czech Republic and Hungary by A. Havas
Technology Futures Analysis as a Decision Problem; the case of Brazilian Energy Technology Foresight by M. Zackiewicz, G. Jannuzzi and I. Macedo
The Use of the Foresight Method for Visioning Transport and Mobility Futures and Specifying Impact Pathways; Lessons for Process Management, Assessment and Evaluation by L. Giorgi
Session 3: Models and Voices
Xtreme EUFORIA: Combining Foresight Methods by R. Popper and W.B. Korte
Participatory Development of Future-Oriented Policy Configurations for Climate Change and Mobile Gaming by A. Salo, R. Gustafsson, I. Kaakkolammi, T. Gustafsson
Linking Cross-Impact Probabilistic Scenarios to Input-Output Models by E. Fontela and J.M. Rueda-Cantuche
Nordic H2 Energy Foresight - Complementary contribution of expert views and formal analyses by A. Eerola & T. Loikkanen, B. Holst Joergensen & P. Dannemand Andersen and E. Anders Eriksson
The future impact of ICT on environmental sustainability by P. Arnfalk, L. Erdmann, J. Goodman, L. Hilty
The RISE project: some new methodologies for regional foresight by C. Roveda, R. Verganti, P. Bandoni, R. Vecchiato
Participative & Coherent Scenario building: An Input/ Output Balance model; The Case of the French National FutuRIS Operation by R. Barré and B. David
Session 4: What’s the use?
Assessing the Impact of Future-Oriented Technology Assessment by M. Ladikas and M. Decker
Towards a Typology for Evaluating Foresight Exercises by L. Georghiou, M. Keenan
Tracing Implementation Trajectories of Foresight Priorities by M. Keenan
FUTUR – The German Research Dialogue - The Second Phase by S. Hafner and K. Cuhls
Vision Assessment as a new element of the FTA toolbox by A. Grunwald
Foresighting and Technology Choice in small Developing Countries by W. Wehrmeyer, J. Chenoweth, A. Clayton, M. Fernandez-Lopez and K. Lum
Foresight As A Tool For System Innovation in Dutch Agriculture by J.G. de Wilt
Session 5: Tales from the frontier
QTIP: Quick Technology Intelligence Processes by A. L. Porter
The Scan™ Process and Technology Foresight by K. M. Patton
Tracing Emerging Irreversibilities in Emerging Technology: The case of nanotubes by R. van Merkerk and H. van Lente
Scenario-based Roadmapping – A Conceptual View by F. Lizaso and G. Reger
Evaluation of Laboratory Directed Research and Development (LDRD) Investment Areas at Sandia by K.W. Boyack and N. Rahal
Dynamic monitoring of future developments by M. Butter and J.P. Mook
Session 6: Importing Ideas
The Interplay of Technology, Consciousness and Culture: Implications for Future-Oriented Technology Analyses by R. Nelson
Evolutionary theory of technological change: State-of-the-art and new approaches by T.C. Devezas
Evolution of behaviour predicting the adoption of innovations by N. Pals, D.J. Langley and J.R. Ortt
Experience Curves in Prospective Studies by Stine Grenaa Jensen and Per Dannemand Andersen
A shocking experiment: alternative approaches for discontinuity-oriented scenario development by P. van Notten
Prospective Voluntary Agreement: Escaping Techno-Institutional Lock-in by T. Könnölä, G. C. Unruh and J. Carrillo-Hermosilla
Papers from posters session:
Adding Value to Iinformation in the Process of Promoting Technological Innovation: an approach implemented by the Center for Management and Strategic Studies on Science, Technology and Innovation in Brazil by M. de Miranda Santos, D. Maria dos Santos, L. Fellows Filho, G. Massari Coelho, M. Zackiewicz
Pathways towards Lisbon objectives in the area of Information Society technologies- The Fistera Methodology by R. Compañó, C. Pascu, J.-C. Burgelman
Roadmapping as TA-Tool: Pre-requisites and potential benefits for assessing Nanotechnology by U. Fiedeler, T. Fleischer and M. Decker
Scenarios that tell a story; Normative Narrative Scenarios – An efficient tool for participative innovation-oriented foresight by R. Gaßner and K. Steinmüller
Technology Watch: So What? Revisited for FTA by D. Harries
ToekomstWijzer : A challenging method to make SME’s aware of future trends by R. Hartman and V. Philippens
New forms of knowledge management in participatory foresight: The case of “Futur” by M. Jaspers, H. Banthien and J. Mayer-Ries
Trends in Oil & Gas in Brazil: a methodological approach by M. Aparecida Stallivieri Neves, G. Massari Coelho, C. Lemos and J. Maldonado
Technologies for the Future - Value System Analysis as a Tool for (Media) Convergence Assessment by J. Saukkonen
Learning From Technology Foresight Connections by J. Smith and M. Mason
Technology Foresight and Assessment in Future Use of Biotechnology by K. Erik Solem and G. Gaivoronskaia
Technology development versus economic growth – an analysis of sustainable development by J. Vehmas, J. Luukkanen and J. Kaivo-oja
Technometric Advances -The Seismic Approach. Analysis of Technological Change: Measuring and Classifying the Economic Impact by M. Coccia